The College of Administration and Economics at the University of Baghdad discussed , a master’s thesis in field of Operation Research by the student (Alaa Khaled Mahmood ) and tagged with (Using sensitivity analysis to reduce the impacts of risks and delays in project management – with Application) , Under supervision of (Asst. Prof. Dr. Omar Mohammed Nasser )
Major investment projects and infrastructure face Infrastructure faces many challenges and numerous risks, including financial, administrative, and operational risks that lead to delays in execution. This situation negatively impacts economic feasibility and operational > efficiency. This study aims to analyze the Mosul train station project in Nineveh Governorate, as it> is considered> one of the> important investment and strategic projects, by applying practical project management methods that reduce risks and delays. The methodology was represented by using the Net >Present >Value (>NPV) method to evaluate the project in terms of economic feasibility, where the results showed. The project has high economic feasibility, with a Net Present Value (NPV) of 76,691,409,817 Iraqi Dinars, and a profitability index of 9.71, which is a high value, and a very short payback period. It is approximately half a year. After that, the PERT method was applied to determine the project completion duration, and the results showed that (1240.33 days) is the project completion duration at (50%), with one critical path consisting of (16 activities). The project analysis was enhanced using the Monte Carlo method, which indicated that the project completion duration at (100%) is (1373 days), meaning the schedule should be reconsidered and a contingency period added. And by >applying sensitivity analysis to the critical activities to determine the most impactful activities in terms of> time and >cost, it was found that activities (A2-A7) are the most sensitive, requiring close monitoring and contingency plans to avoid risks.In the decision tree method, the available alternatives for use in the project to reduce operational risks after its completion were analyzed. The results showed that the third alternative, which includes an integrated security system with an emergency management system, achieved the highest expected monetary value, making it the optimal choice. From an economic perspective, it reduces. From future risks. The study proved the adoption of the payback period due to its short duration, and the project’s reliance on being safe and reducing financial and operational risks, which will yield economic benefits if implemented thru the development line connecting Iraq to Turkey and the Middle East. It is recommended to record profits annually from the transportation of (passengers, oil, wheat), and the integration of simulation with sensitivity analysis provides better results as it analyzes critical activities in terms of time and cost, identifies the most sensitive activities to focus on, and avoids risks and delays in the project.
